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Oilers vs Avalanche Game 2 Picks and Predictions: Edmonton Fires Back, Knots Up Series

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After Tuesday’s 14-goal outburst and both starting goalies possibly watching tonight, our NHL betting picks and predictions are expecting Game 2 of the West finals between the visiting Edmonton Oilers and favoured Colorado Avalanche to be another 80s-era track meet.

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The Avalanche led Game 1 by as many as four goals but Edmonton made things very interesting late turning it into a one-goal game. The visitors may have dropped Game 1 and enter tonight as +160 underdogs, but Edmonton showed in the opener they can go toe-to-toe with No. 1 Avs.

Despite the total hitting 7.5, are bettors still hitting the Over and expecting another shootout? Or our both coaches going to try and tighten things up after a loose Game 1? Keep reading to find out.

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Oilers vs Avalanche Game 2 odds

The Avalanche opened as -175 home favourites and have moved five points to -180. The home side closed as -200 favourites in Game 1 after opening at -170. We’d expect this line to close closer to -200 tonight.

The total has also seen a facelift after a 14-goal game in the opener. Tonight’s total opened at 7 and has touched 7.5 at plenty of books. Game 1 opened at 6.5 and closed at 7.

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Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Oilers vs Avalanche Game 2 predictions

Predictions made on 6/2/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Oilers vs Avalanche Game 2 info

Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Date: Thursday, June 2, 2022
Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT, Sportsnet

Oilers vs Avalanche series odds (COL leads 1-0)

Oilers: +350
Avalanche: -450

Oilers vs Avalanche Game 2 betting preview

Key injuries

Oilers: No key injuries to report.
Avalanche: Darcy Kuemper G (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Oilers vs Avalanche head-to-head record in the series

Oilers: 0-1 SU, six goals for.
Avalanche: 1-0 SU, eight goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the Lightning’s last five overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Avalanche.

Oilers vs Avalanche Game 2 picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favourite pick across all markets.

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Moneyline analysis

After 20 minutes of Game 1, we knew the Western Conference Finals was going to be a track meet and the Oilers and Avalanche didn’t disappoint. There was so much scoring in the 8-6 Colorado win (-200), that some fans thought there was too much scoring and that this wasn’t playoff hockey. To that, we say, “take a hike, bud”.

We watched some of the best offensive hockey ever on display in Game 1 and one thing we learned is that no matter how many goals the Oilers may trail by, they have enough offence to tilt the ice and be competitive in every game.

Edmonton saw itself trailing 7-3 late in the second but scored three straight goals against backup goalie Pavel Francouz after Darcy Kuemper exited with an upper-body injury. It was eerily similar to Game 1 of the Oilers’ second-round series with the Flames, where Edmonton came back but ultimately lost and then went on to rip off four straight wins.

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The Oilers got production from each line at 5-on-5 and finished 1-for-2 on the power play. Despite the competitive performance, tonight’s line will likely close near -200 which was also the closing moneyline price in Game 1. The xGoals and high-danger chances were very even on Tuesday.

Another huge question comes between the pipes. Colorado starter Darcy Kuemper is questionable (upper-body injury) and Edmonton head coach Jay Woodcroft won’t announce his starter until later today. Avs’ backup Pavel Francouz stopped just 18 of 21 shots in relief and owns a 3.34 GAA and a .891 save percentage across nine postseason games. Kuemper hasn’t been ruled out but neither goalie is giving us much confidence right now. Kuemper has a .897 SV% and a 2.64 GAA so far in the postseason.

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Mike Smith got the hook and backup Mikko Koskinen stopped 20 of 21 shots, giving his team a chance to get back in the game. Smith had been playing more good than bad in the postseason and whoever Woodcroft throws in net, it shouldn’t have a real effect on the moneyline. We’d prefer the confidence of Koskinen but we’ve seen Smith rebound mightily after laying a dud.

The Avalanche are a team that doesn’t really sit back with a lead and protect it. They are go-go-go all the time and that burned them in the opener. Too many times with a lead, Colorado skaters were joining the rush when they didn’t have to and it cost them as the Oilers are a great transition team and move the puck fast.

Colorado has an elite edge on the blueline but that seems to be about it. Edmonton had some tough luck with Cale Makar’s offside goal which also turned into a power-play goal for the Avs following the failed challenge attempt. After one game, we think the Oilers match up well and are worth a play at +155.

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Prediction: Oilers moneyline (+160 at bet365)

Covers NHL betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

We have the advantage of pondering this total with some numbers of 7 still on the board, but we’d assume at puck drop, this total is at 7.5 across the board — so we’ll assume a 7.5 total. Even at this gaudy number that we can’t remember seeing in a playoff game, we’re not even thinking about the Under.

Edmonton did not see a total of 7.5 all season and was 3-2-1 O/U on totals of 7. Colorado saw a total of 7 just once all year in a 4-3 win over the Wild.

Eight goals are insane but if there are two teams that favour this, it’s Edmonton and Colorado. The Avs don’t shut down things when they get the lead and were constantly in attack mode Tuesday even with a four-goal lead.

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Both teams are so quick in transition and had a lot of success gaining the offensive zone with possession as opposed to working the forecheck. This helped to create a massive 8.56 xGoals, 77 scoring chances, and 37 high-danger chances.

The Edmonton blueline showed its lack of defensive prowess as Duncan Keith, Cody Ceci, and Tyson Barrie are not guys you want defending a 2-on-1 with Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. More surprising was the play of the Colorado defence and more specifically Josh Manson who was on the ice for a ton of goals against and finished at minus-4 for the game.

Both teams have no issues playing from behind and continue to attack even with the lead. Goaltending is a giant question mark in this series and if either team gets more time on the power play, we could see some heavy two-way scoring.

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Although we would rather play some other derivative markets than the Over 7.5, this could easily be a 6-4 game and the only thing likely stopping that would be one of the goalies stealing the game and after Game 1, that’s not something we’re expecting.

If you can get this at 7, that would be ideal and a number we already locked in earlier, but if everywhere hits 7.5, we’d still lean towards the Over.

Prediction: Over 7.5 (+114 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Two-way scoring shouldn’t be an issue tonight and the total is indicating that. The Oilers are heavy +160 dogs and still have a team total that is paying -215 for the Over 2.5. Colorado is paying -450 for the Over 2.5. This is why we love both teams to score three or more goals at -110.

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This is the perfect pivot market for the full-game total, especially if you’re only getting 7.5. The Oilers created just as many high-danger chances as the Avs in Game 1 as this is an Edmonton team that has no issues trading quantity for quality. They also have no problems playing from behind and certainly showed no signs of quitting in Game 1 down four goals.

Colorado played some shutdown hockey during the regular season but this is not a defensive team that can sit back on a lead right now. We saw it in the St. Louis series and we saw it in Game 1. Instead of getting the puck in deep and establishing a heavy forecheck, the Avs were still gaining the offensive zone with possession while holding multi-goal leads. That type of play is great for Overs as it is great for creating quality offensive chances but any turnovers and the Oilers can transition immediately to the attack.

Neither team knows who is starting Game 2 and that is a great indicator of the state of this series’ goaltending. Two-way scoring is coming and if we see more penalties tonight, both of these elite power plays good find the back of the net.

Pick: Both teams to score 3+ goals (-110 at bet365)

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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