Kentucky Derby Long Shots: Expert Analysis and 2022 Performance

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Here are our bottom 12 ranked horses set to run this Saturday, May 7 at the 148th Kentucky Derby.

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For our top-10 horses running, see our analysis of the Kentucky Derby favorites.

Kentucky Derby underdogs & long shots

charge it

Charge It

  • Expert Rank: #11
  • $25 Bet Wins: $300
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Luis Saez
  • Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Royally-bred son of Tapit is on an accelerated learning curve. Lacking the experience of his Pletcher stablemates, Charge It looked green when rallying for second in his stakes and two-turn bow in the Florida Derby. The question is whether he’s gained enough seasoning to handle this stiffer test, or if he’ll come into his own in the summer.

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tiz the bomb

Tiz the Bomb

  • Expert Rank: #12
  • $25 Bet Wins: $625
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
  • Trainer: Kenny McPeek

The dirt surface is the biggest question mark hovering over Tiz the Bomb. Accomplished on turf as a juvenile, he booked his Derby ticket by winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and John Battaglia Memorial on the synthetic Tapeta at Turfway Park. Trainer Kenny McPeek was thinking of trying the English classics, on turf, before committing Tiz the Bomb to Churchill.

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  • Expert Rank: #13
  • $25 Bet Wins: $625
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Manny Franco
  • Trainer: Brad Cox

Zozos teed up Epicenter’s track record in the Louisiana Derby by setting a strong pace, but he kept on well for second. Considering it was just his third career start, and first loss, the Cox trainee is eligible to progress from that experience. Zozos is signaling such a move forward with his drills at Churchill, suggesting that he shouldn’t be overlooked between stablemates Cyberknife and Tawny Port.

pioneer of medina

Pioneer of Medina

  • Expert Rank: #14
  • $25 Bet Wins: $825
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Joe Bravo
  • Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Pletcher’s third entrant just made the cut as number 20 on the list after the latest defection. Pioneer of Medina has been steadily advancing, from a fourth in the Risen Star to a third in the Louisiana Derby. With his classically-oriented pedigree, another step forward is likely, and could be enough for him to sneak into the superfecta.

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tawny port

Tawny Port

  • Expert Rank: #15
  • $25 Bet Wins: $825
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
  • Trainer: Brad Cox

Runner-up in Turfway’s Jeff Ruby Steaks after a fifth in the Risen Star, Tawny Port appeared better on the synthetic Tapeta. But he got an opportunity to answer the dirt question in the final scoring race, the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, and Tawny Port seized it to win despite a wide trip. Yet his overall profile still gives him the vibe of Cox’s third-stringer.

rattle n roll

Rattle N Roll

  • Expert Rank: #16
  • $25 Bet Wins: $1,250
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: James Graham
  • Trainer: Kenny McPeek

On a roll at two, Rattle N Roll broke his maiden impressively at Churchill and uncorked a Derby-style move on the far turn in a smashing Breeders’ Futurity (G1). But he’s yet to reproduce those efforts this year, with a fourth in the Louisiana Derby and sixths in both the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass. Trainer McPeek sounded inclined to try an easier spot, only to enter the Derby as an also eligible.

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classic causeway

Classic Causeway

  • Expert Rank: #17
  • $25 Bet Wins: $825
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Julien Leparoux
  • Trainer: Brian Lynch

Pace factor blossomed earlier in the season at Tampa Bay Downs, turning the Sam F. Davis (G3)/Tampa Bay Derby (G2) double. The original plan was to point for the Blue Grass, but instead he was rerouted to the Florida Derby and threw in a clunker in last. Trainer Brian Lynch intended to skip the Kentucky Derby, only to reverse course recently, and Classic Causeway is in a tough spot to rebound.

ethereal road

Ethereal Road

  • Expert Rank: #18
  • $25 Bet Wins: $1,250
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Luis Contreras
  • Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, who has trained four Derby winners, tries to make the race again with a rank outsider. Ethereal Road burst onto the scene at Oaklawn with a tough-beat second in the Rebel, but he’s failed to build upon it. Seventh in the Blue Grass, he wheeled back a week later to finish fourth in the Lexington, and accordingly finds himself on the outside looking in at number 21.

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barber road

Barber Road

  • Expert Rank: #19
  • $25 Bet Wins: $1,000
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
  • Trainer: John Alexander Ortiz

The reliable Barber Road placed in all four of the Derby points races at Oaklawn Park. The closer was runner-up in the Arkansas Derby, Southwest (G3), and Smarty Jones S., but ironically got nearest the winner when third, beaten just a half-length, in the Rebel (G2). Although he’s not good enough to win, Barber Road’s willing attitude could help him crash the superfecta at big odds.

summer is tomorrow

Summer Is Tomorrow

  • Expert Rank: #20
  • $25 Bet Wins: $1,650
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Mikael Barzalona
  • Trainer: Bhupat Seemar

Runner-up as the pacesetter in the UAE Derby, Summer Is Tomorrow could not hold off Crown Pride. The Kentucky-bred will confront a more challenging pace scenario here, along with the trends versus Dubai alumni. But the speedy colt showed enough in that two-turn debut for connections, including newly-minted champion UAE trainer Bhupat Seemar, to make him a late nominee to the Triple Crown.

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rich strike

Rich Strike

  • Expert Rank: #21
  • $25 Bet Wins:  $2,500
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Sonny Leon
  • Trainer: Eric Reed

Expected to enter as an also-eligible, Rich Strike has earned his points exclusively on the Tapeta at Turfway, closing from far back to grab fourth in the Battaglia and third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Trainer Eric Reed is relying on the colt’s stamina to give him a shot at the Derby. Note that his sire, Keen Ice, shocked Triple Crown champ American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers (G1).

happy jack

Happy Jack

  • Expert Rank: #22
  • $25 Bet Wins: $1,650
  • Category: Long shot
  • Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
  • Trainer: Doug O’Neill


Some way below the top rank on the Southern California circuit, Happy Jack was beaten double-digits in the Robert B. Lewis, San Felipe (G2), and Santa Anita Derby. Yet he was third in the last two, earning enough points to land a spot in the field. His only talking points are his connections – Calumet Farm is the Derby’s all-time leading owner/breeder, and Doug O’Neill has trained two winners.

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Which states have legal betting on the Kentucky Derby?

Kentucky Derby betting is legal in 34 states, available at both TVG and TwinSpires.

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$200 risk-free bet


Find the best Kentucky Derby betting sites in your region. The best betting sites offer sharp odds, quick payouts and are safe and secure when it comes to depositing and withdrawing your money.

Canada (excluding Ontario)

Almost all sports betting sites offer fixed-odds betting on horse racing. Check out the best sports betting sites in Canada or sign up now with one of our top partners, Bet365, and earn up to $200 in bet credits!


Following the changes to the iGaming regulations on April 4, 2022, horse racing betting is no longer available at sportsbooks. Those in Ontario who are looking to bet on the Kentucky Derby will need to sign up at one of Woodbine’s two online offerings, HPIbet and Dark Horse Bets

This article originally appeared on, read the full article here

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